---
Note: View a more human-readable HTML version of this file at https://deficitfacts.com/prompts.html
---
# prompts.txt
prompts.txt is a simple format for transparently publishing all AI prompts used to create this site.
## Recessions
We use a simple LLM prompt to generate qualitative descriptions of U.S. recessions.
```prompt name="recessions"
## Role
You are an expert economic research analyst who provides concise, objective, non-partisan, factual descriptions of U.S. economic events.
## Purpose
Content will be displayed in hover cards in an app about the budget deficit, for the general public.
Write as if explaining to an interested friend, not an economist or expert.
## Task
Identify all official U.S. recessions (as designated by the NBER) in the period 1992-2024.
## Guidelines
- Write in clear, everyday language for a general audience, avoiding jargon or technical terms
- Maintain strict political neutrality
- Keep descriptions brief and focused
- Use empirical evidence only
type Recession = {
startYear: number;
endYear: number;
name: string; // Clear, recognizable name
description: string; // What happened (25-30 words)
impact: string; // Revenue impact (20-25 words)
policyResponse?: string; // Optional response (15-20 words)
};
// Example format:
const RECESSIONS: Recession[] = [
{
startYear: 2007,
endYear: 2009,
name: "Great Recession",
description: "Housing market collapse triggered a severe financial crisis, freezing credit markets and leading to widespread economic downturn.",
impact: "Steepest decline in federal revenues since 1930s, with major drops in personal income, corporate, and capital gains taxes.",
policyResponse: "Implemented extensive tax relief and stimulus measures to stabilize the economy."
}
];
```
```typescript for="recessions" model="anthropic/claude-3.5-sonnet" date="2025-02-18"
type Recession = {
startYear: number;
endYear: number;
name: string;
description: string;
impact: string;
policyResponse?: string;
};
const RECESSIONS: Recession[] = [
{
startYear: 2001,
endYear: 2001,
name: "Dot-Com Recession",
description: "Stock market crash following tech bubble burst, coupled with 9/11 attacks, led to sharp decline in business investment.",
impact: "Sharp drop in capital gains tax revenue and business taxes as tech sector contracted and stock values fell.",
policyResponse: "Implemented tax rebates and cuts to encourage consumer spending and business investment."
},
{
startYear: 2007,
endYear: 2009,
name: "Great Recession",
description: "Housing market collapse triggered a severe financial crisis, freezing credit markets and leading to widespread economic downturn.",
impact: "Steepest decline in federal revenues since 1930s, with major drops in personal income, corporate, and capital gains taxes.",
policyResponse: "Implemented extensive tax relief and stimulus measures to stabilize the economy."
},
{
startYear: 2020,
endYear: 2020,
name: "COVID-19 Recession",
description: "Pandemic lockdowns and health measures caused sudden shutdown of many businesses and record unemployment spike.",
impact: "Dramatic but brief drop in tax revenues across all categories as business activity and employment plunged.",
policyResponse: "Provided unprecedented emergency aid to businesses and households through relief packages."
}
];
```
## Spending categories
We use OpenAI's "Deep research" model, with web browsing, to research what's contained in each CBO spending category.
This creates a LONG report, available at the link below, which we summarize in bullet point form using `o3-mini-high`.
```prompt name="spending-categories"
## Role
You are an expert economic research analyst who provides concise, objective, non-partisan, factual descriptions of U.S. federal spending categories.
## Purpose
Content will be displayed in hover cards for a general audience learning about the federal budget.
Write as if explaining to an interested friend, not an economist or expert.
## Guidelines
- Write in clear, everyday language
- Maintain strict political neutrality
- Keep descriptions brief and focused
- Use only official government sources (CBO, OMB)
- Present information in a consistent, scannable format
## Task
I'm looking for an objective, factual, non-partisan description of each of the major CBO historical spending categories:
- Defense
- Non-defense discretionary
- Social Security
- Medicare
- Medicaid
- Income security
- Federal civilian and military retirement
- Veterans programs
- Other programs
- Offsetting receipts
- Net interest
For each category, explain:
1. Description: What is it, at a high level?
2. Major programs: What are the significant programs, activities, or departments included in that category?
3. Primary beneficiaries: Who are the primary beneficiaries who would be impacted by spending changes?
4. Practical impacts of spending changes: What is likely to be impacted by spending changes in this category?
Include more detail for broader categories like "Non-defense discretionary" or "Other programs" that include many smaller programs. You don't need to be as detailed for narrower categories like "Social Security" or "Medicare" that are more specific.
Be as objective, factual, and non-partisan as possible. I just want the facts, not political commentary or analysis.
Sources:
- Use only authoritative sources such as the CBO, OMB, or official government sites.
- No think tanks, news articles, or partisan sources.
IMPORTANT:
- Be CONCISE. I don't need a long/detailed report.
- I just want concise info for each category, in bullet point format.
---
Can you summarize the content above more concisely in bullet point format?
Please keep the detailed lists of major programs (including specific agencies or spending programs), just format content to be more concise/readable as bullet points, not paragraphs.
```
```markdown for="spending-categories" model="openai/o3-mini-high" mode="Deep research" date="2025-02-18" link="https://chatgpt.com/share/67b4cece-cd40-8012-a230-f28365eb5026"
Below is a concise, bullet point summary for each major spending category:
---
### Defense
- **Description:**
- Funds national security and military activities.
- Largest part of discretionary spending, covering operations, personnel, equipment, and R&D.
- **Major Programs:**
- Military personnel pay and benefits.
- Operation and maintenance of the armed forces.
- Weapons and equipment procurement.
- Research and development for new defense technologies.
- Nuclear weapons and atomic energy defense activities (via the Department of Energy).
- **Primary Beneficiaries:**
- Active military personnel and defense civilians.
- Defense contractors and communities tied to defense facilities.
- **Practical Impacts of Spending Changes:**
- **Increases:** Expand military capabilities, training, and technology; boost jobs in defense industries.
- **Cuts:** May reduce troop readiness, delay modernization programs, and affect local economies dependent on defense spending.
---
### Non-defense Discretionary
- **Description:**
- Annual appropriations for federal programs excluding defense.
- Funds a broad range of domestic and international services.
- **Major Programs:**
- **Education:** Grants, K–12 funding, and special education (Department of Education).
- **Health and Science:** NIH research, public health programs, and space exploration (NASA).
- **Transportation/Infrastructure:** Highway construction, transit, air traffic control (Department of Transportation).
- **Housing/Community:** Rental assistance (Section 8), community development, energy assistance.
- **Public Safety/Justice:** Federal law enforcement (FBI, DEA) and judicial system support.
- **International Affairs:** Diplomacy and foreign aid (State Department, USAID).
- **Primary Beneficiaries:**
- Students, teachers, researchers, and commuters.
- Low-income families and local governments benefiting from grants.
- **Practical Impacts of Spending Changes:**
- **Increases:** Expand services, grants, and infrastructure projects.
- **Cuts:** May reduce funding for services and delay key projects, impacting local communities.
---
### Social Security
- **Description:**
- Federal entitlement providing monthly cash benefits for retirees, disabled workers, and survivors.
- Funded primarily by payroll taxes and operates via set formulas.
- **Major Programs:**
- **Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI):** Retirement and survivors benefits.
- **Disability Insurance (DI):** Benefits for eligible disabled workers.
- **Primary Beneficiaries:**
- Retirees, disabled individuals, and families of deceased workers.
- **Practical Impacts of Spending Changes:**
- **Increases:** Raise benefit amounts and reduce poverty among seniors.
- **Cuts:** Could lower or delay benefits, impacting financial security for millions.
---
### Medicare
- **Description:**
- Health insurance program primarily for Americans aged 65+ and some younger disabled individuals.
- Covers hospital, physician, and prescription drug services.
- **Major Programs:**
- **Part A:** Hospital insurance (inpatient care, skilled nursing, hospice, home health).
- **Part B:** Medical insurance (doctor visits, outpatient care, preventive services).
- **Part C (Medicare Advantage):** Managed care alternative combining Parts A and B (often including Part D).
- **Part D:** Prescription drug coverage through private plans.
- **Primary Beneficiaries:**
- Seniors and eligible disabled individuals.
- Healthcare providers billing for services.
- **Practical Impacts of Spending Changes:**
- **Increases:** May improve access, expand benefits, and lower out-of-pocket costs.
- **Cuts:** Could result in lower provider payments or increased cost-sharing for beneficiaries.
---
### Medicaid
- **Description:**
- Joint federal-state entitlement providing health coverage for low-income individuals.
- Covers a wide range of services including primary and long-term care.
- **Major Programs:**
- Coverage for low-income children, parents, pregnant women, and adults (including ACA expansions).
- Long-term care for seniors and people with disabilities.
- Related programs like the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP).
- **Primary Beneficiaries:**
- Low-income families, children, pregnant women, seniors, and disabled individuals.
- Healthcare providers receiving Medicaid reimbursements.
- **Practical Impacts of Spending Changes:**
- **Increases:** Expand eligibility and benefits; boost provider payments.
- **Cuts:** May force states to restrict eligibility or reduce services, impacting access to care.
---
### Income Security
- **Description:**
- Programs that offer financial assistance and support to individuals facing economic hardship.
- Aims to reduce poverty and cushion economic downturns through direct payments or tax credits.
- **Major Programs:**
- **Unemployment Compensation:** Temporary income for jobless workers.
- **SNAP:** Food assistance for low-income households.
- **Supplemental Security Income (SSI):** Cash assistance for low-income elderly and disabled individuals.
- **Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF):** Cash aid and welfare-to-work programs.
- **Tax Credits:** Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Child Tax Credit.
- **Housing Assistance:** Rental subsidies (Section 8) and energy assistance (LIHEAP).
- **Primary Beneficiaries:**
- Low-income individuals and families, unemployed workers, and vulnerable groups including children.
- **Practical Impacts of Spending Changes:**
- **Increases:** Enhance benefits and expand eligibility, reducing poverty and hardship.
- **Cuts:** Lower assistance levels, potentially increasing financial strain and shifting costs to state/local governments.
---
### Federal Civilian and Military Retirement
- **Description:**
- Pensions and retirement benefits for federal civilian employees and military service members.
- Operates on a mandatory basis, based on service and salary history.
- **Major Programs:**
- **Civilian Retirement:** CSRS, FERS, and associated disability/survivor benefits.
- **Military Retirement:** Lifetime pensions for military personnel, including survivor benefits and some health benefits.
- **Primary Beneficiaries:**
- Retired federal employees and military veterans (plus their dependents).
- Future beneficiaries among current employees and service members.
- **Practical Impacts of Spending Changes:**
- **Increases:** Preserve or enhance promised benefits and cost-of-living adjustments.
- **Cuts/Slower Growth:** Could involve policy changes (e.g., higher contributions or modified formulas) that reduce future benefits.
---
### Veterans Programs
- **Description:**
- Programs dedicated to providing benefits and services to U.S. military veterans.
- Includes both mandatory (entitlement) and discretionary funding to honor service.
- **Major Programs:**
- **Disability Compensation and Pensions:** Benefits for service-connected disabilities and low-income wartime veterans.
- **Veterans Health Care:** VA hospitals, clinics, and medical services.
- **Education and Training:** GI Bill and related educational benefits.
- **Housing and Other Benefits:** Home loan guarantees, housing grants, life insurance, and burial benefits.
- **Primary Beneficiaries:**
- Approximately 19 million veterans and their families.
- Particularly veterans with service-connected disabilities and recent service members using the GI Bill.
- **Practical Impacts of Spending Changes:**
- **Increases:** Expand or improve services (e.g., more VA resources, enhanced GI Bill benefits).
- **Cuts:** May reduce services, tighten eligibility, and diminish overall support for veterans.
---
### Other Programs
- **Description:**
- A catch-all for smaller mandatory or specialized spending not classified elsewhere.
- Covers diverse functions that support specific sectors or purposes.
- **Major Programs:**
- **Agricultural Subsidies:** Farm income support, crop insurance, and related programs (Department of Agriculture).
- **Federal Student Loan Programs:** Loan issuance, subsidies, and forgiveness provisions.
- **Deposit Insurance:** FDIC operations and financial stabilization programs.
- **Natural Resources/Environment:** Resource management, cleanup, and water project funding.
- **Postal Service Support:** Occasional transfers or retiree benefits for the U.S. Postal Service.
- **Primary Beneficiaries:**
- Industry-specific groups such as farmers, college students, and bank customers.
- Communities tied to resource management and environmental programs.
- **Practical Impacts of Spending Changes:**
- **Increases:** Targeted boosts (e.g., enhanced student loan support or additional farm subsidies).
- **Cuts:** Could reduce support for these specific sectors, potentially increasing volatility or reducing service quality.
---
### Offsetting Receipts
- **Description:**
- Funds collected by the government that reduce net spending (treated as negative outlays).
- Includes fees, premiums, and other payments that help cover program costs.
- **Major Programs:**
- **Medicare Premiums:** Payments for Parts B and D.
- **Federal Retirement Contributions:** Employee and agency contributions to pension funds.
- **Mineral Royalties and Rents:** Revenues from leasing federal lands for oil, gas, and mineral extraction.
- **Spectrum Auctions & Miscellaneous User Fees:** Payments for spectrum licenses, park entries, immigration fees, etc.
- **Interest Income and Asset Sales:** Earnings from loans and proceeds from selling federal assets.
- **Primary Beneficiaries:**
- Indirect benefit to federal finances (reducing net outlays).
- Direct impact on program participants (who pay higher fees or premiums).
- **Practical Impacts of Spending Changes:**
- **Increases:** Lower net spending but may raise costs for beneficiaries (e.g., higher Medicare premiums).
- **Decreases:** Result in higher net spending, potentially requiring more general revenue funding.
---
### Net Interest
- **Description:**
- Represents the cost of servicing the federal debt (interest paid minus interest income).
- A mandatory expense reflecting the government’s borrowing costs.
- **Major Programs:**
- **Debt Service:** Interest payments on Treasury securities (bills, notes, bonds) to various investors.
- **Interest Income Offsets:** Earnings from government loans and trust fund assets that reduce net costs.
- **Primary Beneficiaries:**
- Holders of U.S. government debt (individual investors, institutions, foreign governments, etc.).
- **Practical Impacts of Spending Changes:**
- **Rising Net Interest:** Means a larger portion of the budget goes to debt service, potentially crowding out other spending.
- **Lower Net Interest:** Frees up resources for other programs; reducing net interest typically requires lowering overall debt or benefiting from lower interest rates.
```
## Tax policies
We first use a reasoning model with a simple prompt to identify the list of major tax legislation in the years 1992-2024 that had a significant impact on federal revenues.
```prompt name="identify-tax-policies"
Task: Identify major US federal legislation between 1992-2024 that significantly impacted federal revenues.
Include:
- Major tax reform bills
- Bills that changed tax rates or created new taxes, fees, credits
- Healthcare legislation with significant tax provisions
- Legislation that substantially modified tax rates
- Major stimulus or emergency response bills with significant tax provisions
- Bills with estimated revenue impact over $100B (in year enacted)
Examples of bills to include:
- Tax reform acts that modified individual/corporate rates
- Healthcare bills with major tax components (like ACA)
- Budget reconciliation acts with significant tax changes
- Economic recovery bills with major tax provisions (like ARRA 2009)
Exclude:
- Regular appropriations bills
- Minor tax provisions
Output Format:
[YEAR] OFFICIAL LEGISLATION NAME
```
```text for="identify-tax-policies" model="openai/o3-mini-high" date="2025-02-18" link="https://chatgpt.com/share/67b4d74d-b480-8012-ac27-025086dd296c"
[1993] Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993
[1997] Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997
[2001] Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001
[2003] Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003
[2009] American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
[2010] Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
[2012] American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012
[2017] Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
[2020] Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act
[2021] American Rescue Plan Act of 2021
[2022] Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
```
We then use OpenAI "Deep research" to research the major provisions in each bill, and `o3-mini-high` to summarize the results.
```prompt name="research-tax-policies"
## Role
You are an expert economic research analyst who provides concise, objective, non-partisan, factual descriptions of historical tax legislation.
## Purpose
This research will be summarized in hover cards for an app to help the general public learn more about the federal budget deficit.
Write as if explaining to an interested friend, not an economist or expert.
## Style Guidelines
- Write in clear, everyday language
- Maintain strict political neutrality
- Keep descriptions brief and focused
- Use ONLY official government sources
- Present information in a consistent, scannable format
## Task
For each law below, provide the following information:
1. Full Official Title: Complete legal name of the law
2. Common Name: Any widely used informal or popular name (if applicable)
3. President: Signing president's last name
4. Summary: ONE sentence summary of the legislation for the general public
5. Major Tax Provisions: List up to 5 of the most significant changes, in order of approximate fiscal impact
For each law, summarize the major tax provisions in bullet point format.
For example:
- "Reduced corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%"
## Requirements
- MUST include specific numbers for:
* Major tax rate changes (individual, corporate, capital gains)
* New broad-based taxes (e.g., minimum tax rates)
- Specify affected taxpayers for rate changes (e.g., "top bracket", "all brackets", "corporations")
- Keep other descriptions general (no need for specific dollar amounts for credits, deductions, or thresholds)
Focus on accuracy for the major provisions and rate changes, particularly:
- Rate changes for individual, corporate, and capital gains taxes
- Tax bracket changes
- Major deduction/credit modifications
- New taxes or fundamental changes to existing taxes
## Authorized Sources
Use only the most official/authoritative primary sources available, such as:
- IRS.gov summaries and historical guidance
- Congressional Research Service (CRS) overviews
- Treasury Department fact sheets
- NO secondary sources (news articles, think tanks)
## Legislation
Please provide this information for each act in the following list:
[1993] Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993
[1997] Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997
[2001] Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001
[2003] Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003
[2009] American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
[2010] Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
[2012] American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012
[2017] Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
[2020] Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act
[2021] American Rescue Plan Act of 2021
[2022] Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
## Output Requirements
- CONCISE presentation
- Focus on requested information only
- No extended discussion or analysis
---
Can you summarize the content above more concisely in bullet point format?
- Preserve the format (year, full name, common name, president, summary, provisions)
- Each description should be ONE sentence
- Each provision should be summarized as a single short bullet point
- For example: "Reduced corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%"
This info will be shown in a tooltip/hovercard in a web app designed to help people better understand the budget deficit.
Summarize in clear, everyday language, as if you were explaining to a friend who's interested, not an economist or expert.
```
```markdown for="research-tax-policies" model="openai/o3-mini-high" mode="Deep research" date="2025-02-18" link="https://chatgpt.com/share/67b4e0a6-e268-8012-80f1-b8779b9f7afc"
- **1993 – Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993**
- **Common Name:** OBRA 1993
- **President:** Clinton
- **Summary:** A law designed to reduce the federal deficit by raising taxes on high-income earners and corporations while adjusting payroll taxes and deductions.
- **Provisions:**
- Raised top individual tax rate from 31% to 39.6%.
- Increased corporate tax rate from 34% to 35%.
- Removed the wage cap on the 2.9% Medicare payroll tax for all wages.
- Increased the portion of Social Security benefits taxed for high-income retirees.
- Raised the fuel excise tax by 4.3¢ per gallon.
- **1997 – Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997**
- **Common Name:** Taxpayer Relief Act
- **President:** Clinton
- **Summary:** A law that cut taxes for families and investors by lowering capital gains and estate taxes, introducing the child tax credit, and promoting education and retirement savings.
- **Provisions:**
- Introduced a child tax credit of up to $500 per child.
- Lowered the top capital gains tax rate to 20% (and 10% for some lower brackets).
- Created a home sale exclusion of $250,000 (single) or $500,000 (joint) for capital gains.
- Raised estate tax exemptions and lowered estate tax rates gradually.
- Established new education tax credits and created Roth IRAs.
- **2001 – Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001**
- **Common Name:** 2001 Bush Tax Cuts
- **President:** Bush
- **Summary:** A sweeping tax cut law that lowered individual income tax rates, increased family credits, and phased out the estate tax with cuts scheduled to expire after 2010.
- **Provisions:**
- Reduced income tax rates across multiple brackets and introduced a new 10% bracket.
- Increased the child tax credit from $500 to $1,000.
- Raised the estate tax exemption from $675,000 to $3.5 million over time.
- Temporarily repealed the estate tax for 2010.
- Increased contribution limits for retirement accounts and incentivized college savings.
- **2003 – Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003**
- **Common Name:** 2003 Bush Tax Cuts
- **President:** Bush
- **Summary:** A law that accelerated the 2001 tax cuts by making them effective immediately and reducing taxes on dividends and capital gains to boost economic growth.
- **Provisions:**
- Made scheduled tax cuts effective immediately.
- Reduced the top individual tax rate to 35%.
- Lowered taxes on qualified dividends and capital gains to 15% (and 5% for lower-income taxpayers).
- Increased the child tax credit to $1,000.
- Boosted bonus depreciation from 30% to 50% and raised Section 179 expensing limits.
- **2009 – American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009**
- **Common Name:** Recovery Act or ARRA
- **President:** Obama
- **Summary:** A stimulus law that provided temporary tax cuts and credits to boost household spending and business investment during the Great Recession.
- **Provisions:**
- Offered refundable “Making Work Pay” credits up to $400 per individual.
- Delivered one-time payments to Social Security recipients and other retirees.
- Expanded the Earned Income Tax Credit and made the Child Tax Credit more refundable.
- Replaced education credits with the American Opportunity Tax Credit.
- Raised the AMT exemption for 2009 to protect taxpayers from its effects.
- **2010 – Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act**
- **Common Name:** Affordable Care Act
- **President:** Obama
- **Summary:** A landmark health reform law that expanded insurance coverage while funding changes through new taxes and tax credits.
- **Provisions:**
- Added a 0.9% Medicare tax on wages for high earners.
- Imposed a 3.8% net investment income tax on high-income individuals.
- Created refundable premium tax credits to lower health insurance costs.
- Introduced an individual mandate with a tax penalty for non-compliance.
- Levied excise taxes on medical devices and health insurance providers.
- **2012 – American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012**
- **Common Name:** ATRA (fiscal cliff deal)
- **President:** Obama
- **Summary:** A law that averted a fiscal cliff by permanently extending most Bush tax cuts while raising rates on top earners and adjusting estate and AMT rules.
- **Provisions:**
- Made Bush-era individual tax cuts permanent for most taxpayers.
- Raised the top income tax rate to 39.6% for incomes above $400,000 (single) or $450,000 (joint).
- Increased capital gains and dividend rates to 20% for high-income earners.
- Set a permanent $5 million estate tax exemption with a top rate of 40%.
- Permanently indexed the Alternative Minimum Tax for inflation.
- **2017 – Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017**
- **Common Name:** TCJA
- **President:** Trump
- **Summary:** A comprehensive tax reform law that permanently cut corporate taxes, temporarily lowered individual rates, and revamped deductions and international tax rules.
- **Provisions:**
- Reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%.
- Lowered individual tax rates with a top rate now at 37% (temporary).
- Nearly doubled the standard deduction while eliminating personal exemptions.
- Capped state and local tax deductions at $10,000.
- Created a 20% deduction for pass-through business income and shifted international tax rules.
- **2020 – Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act**
- **Common Name:** CARES Act
- **President:** Trump
- **Summary:** A pandemic response law that provided direct payments and tax relief to individuals and businesses to help cushion the economic impact of COVID-19.
- **Provisions:**
- Issued stimulus checks of $1,200 per adult plus $500 per child.
- Offered a refundable payroll tax credit of 50% on wages up to $10,000 per employee.
- Allowed businesses to carry back net operating losses for up to 5 years.
- Permitted deferral of the 6.2% Social Security payroll tax.
- Expanded bonus depreciation and suspended tax on some unemployment benefits.
- **2021 – American Rescue Plan Act of 2021**
- **Common Name:** American Rescue Plan
- **President:** Biden
- **Summary:** A COVID-19 relief law that issued a third round of stimulus checks and expanded tax benefits like the child tax credit to support families and low-income workers.
- **Provisions:**
- Provided $1,400 stimulus payments per eligible person.
- Expanded the child tax credit to $3,000 per child (or $3,600 for young children) with monthly payments.
- Nearly tripled the Earned Income Tax Credit for workers without children.
- Increased the child and dependent care credit to cover 50% of expenses.
- Extended enhanced ACA premium tax credits through 2022.
- **2022 – Inflation Reduction Act of 2022**
- **Common Name:** Inflation Reduction Act
- **President:** Biden
- **Summary:** A law focused on reducing inflation that raised taxes on large corporations while extending health and clean energy incentives.
- **Provisions:**
- Imposed a 15% minimum tax on large corporations with over $1 billion in income.
- Created a 1% excise tax on stock buybacks.
- Extended enhanced ACA premium tax credits through 2025.
- Expanded tax credits for renewable energy, electric vehicles, and green technology.
- Extended limitations on excess business loss deductions.
```
## Cost projections
To estimate the deficit impact of each bill, we do NOT trust AI to generate any numerical estimates.
Instead, we ask OpenAI "Deep research" to find the most authoritative official CBO/JCT cost estimate from the time of passage.
We use only "conventional" cost scoring (i.e. excluding "dynamic" macroeconomic feedback effects), which seems like the most objective approach.
We then double-checked the source citations to ensure sources were credible and estimates were extracted correctly.
```prompt name="research-cost-projections"
## Role
You are an expert fiscal policy analyst who provides concise, objective, non-partisan, factual analysis of projected federal budget impacts for major historical legislation.
## Purpose
Content will be displayed in hover cards for a general audience learning about major legislation's fiscal impact.
Write as if explaining to an interested friend, not a budget expert.
## Style Guidelines
- Write in clear, everyday language
- Maintain strict political neutrality
- Keep descriptions brief and focused
- Use ONLY official government sources (CBO, JCT, CRS)
- Present information in a consistent, scannable format
## Required Information
For each piece of legislation, provide ONLY:
1. Primary source document number and direct .gov URL
2. Budget window (fiscal years covered)
3. Total deficit impact (combining ALL spending and revenue effects)
## Sign Convention for Deficit Impact
- Use - (negative) for any changes that INCREASE the deficit
Example: Tax cut without offsets: "-$100 billion"
Example: Spending increase without offsets: "-$50 billion"
- Use + (positive) for any changes that DECREASE the deficit
Example: Revenue increase: "+$75 billion"
Example: Net spending cuts: "+$25 billion"
## Source Requirements
### Primary Sources ONLY (in order of preference)
1. CBO Cost Estimates
- Must include report number (e.g., "CBO-54638")
- Direct link to cbo.gov
- Page/table reference for figures
2. JCT Revenue Estimates
- Must include report number (e.g., "JCX-67-17")
- Direct link to jct.gov
- Page/table reference for figures
3. CRS Reports (only if citing original CBO/JCT estimates)
- Must include report number (e.g., "R42894")
- Direct link to crsreports.congress.gov
- Must reference original CBO/JCT document
### EXCLUDED Sources (DO NOT USE)
- Think tanks (e.g., Urban Institute, Brookings)
- Advocacy organizations (e.g., Concord Coalition)
- News organizations
- Third-party websites
- Government agencies other than CBO/JCT/CRS
## Format Template
[YEAR] OFFICIAL BILL NAME
Primary Source: [CBO/JCT report number] (direct .gov URL)
Budget Window: FY####-FY####
Deficit Impact: [+/- $X.XXX trillion/billion]
## Example Entry
[2017] Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
Primary Source: JCT Report JCX-67-17 (https://www.jct.gov/publications/2017/jcx-67-17/)
Budget Window: FY2018-2027
Deficit Impact: -$1.456 trillion
## Legislation
[1993] Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993
[1997] Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997
[2001] Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001
[2003] Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003
[2009] American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
[2010] Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act
[2012] American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012
[2017] Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017
[2020] Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act
[2021] American Rescue Plan Act of 2021
[2022] Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
## Additional Requirements
- Each entry MUST have a proper CBO/JCT/CRS report number
- All URLs must be direct .gov links
- No explanatory text beyond the required format
- No third-party interpretations
- If no official estimate can be found, state "No official estimate found"
- For bills with multiple scores, use final version closest to passage
- Prefer a 10-year budget window if available
- Conventional scoring only (no dynamic scoring/macroeconomic feedback)
- Original nominal dollars (no inflation adjustment)
- Numbers as originally presented (billions/trillions)
```
```markdown for="research-cost-projections" model="openai/o3-mini-high" mode="Deep research" date="2025-02-18" link="https://chatgpt.com/share/67b4fb6c-b7b0-8012-bbbf-1a6134fe34c9"
I'll research the official CBO, JCT, or CRS estimates for the listed major federal legislation. This will include report numbers, direct .gov URLs, budget windows, and total deficit impacts. I’ll provide the information in the requested format and let you know once it's ready.
# Official Cost Estimates for Major Federal Laws (1993–2022)
Below are the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), or Congressional Research Service (CRS) estimates for each listed bill, including the primary source document (with .gov link), the fiscal years covered (budget window), and the total estimated deficit impact (spending + revenue effects):
## 1993 – Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993
1. **Source:** *CRS Report R40480* (Congressional Research Service) – *Budget Reconciliation Measures Enacted Into Law Since 1980* ([](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480#:~:text=in%20the%20first%20year%20of,benefits%2C%20agricultural%20price%20supports%2C%20crop)).
2. **Budget Window:** FY1994–FY1998 ([](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480#:~:text=This%20five,cuts%20and%20debt%20service%20savings)).
3. **Total Deficit Impact:** **Reduced** the deficit by approximately **$496 billion** over five years ([](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480#:~:text=in%20the%20first%20year%20of,cuts%20and%20debt%20service%20savings)).
## 1997 – Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997
1. **Source:** *CRS Report R40480* (see above) ([Budget Reconciliation Measures Enacted Into Law: 1980-2017](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=P.L.%20105,and%20%2480%20billion%20in%20revenue)) ([Budget Reconciliation Measures Enacted Into Law: 1980-2017](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Senate%20Budget,Food%20Stamps%2C%20TANF%2C%20SSI%2C%20increased)).
2. **Budget Window:** FY1998–FY2002 ([Budget Reconciliation Measures Enacted Into Law: 1980-2017](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=P.L.%20105,and%20%2480%20billion%20in%20revenue)).
3. **Total Deficit Impact:** **Increased** deficits by roughly **$80 billion** (the Act’s tax cuts reduced revenues by about $80 billion over five years) ([Budget Reconciliation Measures Enacted Into Law: 1980-2017](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Senate%20Budget,Food%20Stamps%2C%20TANF%2C%20SSI%2C%20increased)).
## 2001 – Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 (EGTRRA)
1. **Source:** *CRS Report R40480* ([Budget Reconciliation Measures Enacted Into Law: 1980-2017](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=This%2011,the%20Senate%E2%80%99s%20%E2%80%98%E2%80%98Byrd%20rule%E2%80%99%E2%80%99%20against)).
2. **Budget Window:** FY2001–FY2011 ([Budget Reconciliation Measures Enacted Into Law: 1980-2017](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=15,The%20tax%20cuts%20were)) (an 11-year window, as the tax cuts were set to expire after 10 years).
3. **Total Deficit Impact:** **Increased** deficits by an estimated **$1.349 trillion** (reduced the projected surplus by $1.349 trillion over the period) ([Budget Reconciliation Measures Enacted Into Law: 1980-2017](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=tax,the%20Congressional%20Budget%20Act%20of)).
## 2003 – Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA)
1. **Source:** *CRS Report R40480* ([Budget Reconciliation Measures Enacted Into Law: 1980-2017](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=16,bracket%29%2C%20increased%20bonus)) (citing JCT JCX-55-03 for details).
2. **Budget Window:** FY2003–FY2013 ([Budget Reconciliation Measures Enacted Into Law: 1980-2017](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=16,bracket)) (11-year window).
3. **Total Deficit Impact:** **Increased** deficits by approximately **$350 billion** (estimated revenue reduction of $349.667 billion over the period) ([Budget Reconciliation Measures Enacted Into Law: 1980-2017](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=16,bracket)).
## 2009 – American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA)
1. **Source:** *CBO Cost Estimate for H.R. 1 (Conference Agreement)*, Feb. 13, 2009 – CBO letter to Speaker Pelosi (House Rules Committee print) ([American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-5): Summary and Legislative History](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40537#:~:text=The%20conference%20report%20on%20H,1%20in%20the%20next%20section)) ([CBO.gov PDF](http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9989/hr1conference.pdf)).
2. **Budget Window:** FY2009–FY2019 ([American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-5): Summary and Legislative History](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40537#:~:text=The%20conference%20report%20on%20H,1%20in%20the%20next%20section)).
3. **Total Deficit Impact:** **Increased** deficits by about **$787 billion** over ten years ([American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-5): Summary and Legislative History](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40537#:~:text=developed%20compromise%20levels%20between%20the,1%20in%20the%20next%20section)) (approx. $575 billion in outlay increases and $212 billion in revenue reductions) ([American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (P.L. 111-5): Summary and Legislative History](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40537#:~:text=developed%20compromise%20levels%20between%20the,1%20in%20the%20next%20section)).
## 2010 – Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) *(combined with Health Care Reconciliation Act)*
1. **Source:** *CBO and JCT Estimate* (March 20, 2010) as reported in *CRS Report R40480* ([Budget Reconciliation Measures Enacted Into Law: 1980-2017](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Congressional%20Budget,FY2019)).
2. **Budget Window:** FY2010–FY2019 (10-year estimate) ([Budget Reconciliation Measures Enacted Into Law: 1980-2017](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Congressional%20Budget,FY2019)).
3. **Total Deficit Impact:** **Reduced** the deficit by approximately **$143 billion** over ten years ([Budget Reconciliation Measures Enacted Into Law: 1980-2017](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Congressional%20Budget,FY2019)) (net deficit reduction from the insurance coverage provisions and other measures in the ACA, including the related reconciliation act).
## 2012 – American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (ATRA)
1. **Source:** *CRS Report R42884* – *The “Fiscal Cliff” and the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012* ([The “Fiscal Cliff” and the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R42884#:~:text=projected%20to%20rise%20relative%20to,FY2022%20period)).
2. **Budget Window:** FY2013–FY2022 ([The “Fiscal Cliff” and the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R42884#:~:text=projected%20to%20rise%20relative%20to,FY2022%20period)).
3. **Total Deficit Impact:** **Increased** deficits by **nearly $4 trillion** over ten years ([The “Fiscal Cliff” and the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R42884#:~:text=projected%20to%20rise%20relative%20to,FY2022%20period)). (This reflects the permanent extension of 2001/2003 tax cuts and other provisions, which JCT and CBO estimated at about $3.93 trillion in revenue losses plus roughly $34 billion in spending increases ([The “Fiscal Cliff” and the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R42884#:~:text=in%202013,FY2022%20period)) ([The “Fiscal Cliff” and the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R42884#:~:text=extended%20the%202008%20farm%20bill,FY2022%20period)), for a combined deficit increase of approximately $3.96 trillion.)
## 2017 – Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA)
1. **Source:** *JCT Estimated Budget Effects (Conference Agreement)* – JCT document **JCX-67-17** (Dec. 18, 2017) ([JCX6717.xlsx](https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/2f1d880c-ca26-429d-9044-63ac084d07cd/x-67-17-5053.pdf#:~:text=Total%20of%20International%20Tax%20Reform,column)) ([JCT.gov PDF](https://www.jct.gov/publications/2017/jcx-67-17/)).
2. **Budget Window:** FY2018–FY2027 ([JCX6717.xlsx](https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/2f1d880c-ca26-429d-9044-63ac084d07cd/x-67-17-5053.pdf#:~:text=Total%20of%20International%20Tax%20Reform,column)).
3. **Total Deficit Impact:** **Increased** deficits by about **$1.456 trillion** over ten years ([JCX6717.xlsx](https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/2f1d880c-ca26-429d-9044-63ac084d07cd/x-67-17-5053.pdf#:~:text=68,NOTE%3A%20Details)) (net revenue loss, according to JCT’s score).
## 2020 – Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act)
1. **Source:** *CBO Preliminary Cost Estimate for H.R. 748*, April 16, 2020 ([CBO.gov PDF](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-04/hr748.pdf)).
2. **Budget Window:** FY2020–FY2030 (11 fiscal years, including immediate effects in 2020).
3. **Total Deficit Impact:** **Increased** deficits by approximately **$1.76 trillion** over the 2020–2030 period ([CBO Says Coronavirus Response Enacted So Far Will Provide $2.8 Trillion - The Eno Center for Transportation](https://enotrans.org/article/cbo-says-coronavirus-response-enacted-so-far-will-provide-2-8-trillion/#:~:text=So%20the%20official%20estimate%20is,96%20trillion)). *(CBO’s preliminary estimate showed about $1.31 trillion in new outlays and $436 billion in reduced revenues, with additional loan programs not adding to the deficit immediately, for a total of roughly $1.76 trillion added to deficits over ten years) ([CBO Says Coronavirus Response Enacted So Far Will Provide $2.8 Trillion - The Eno Center for Transportation](https://enotrans.org/article/cbo-says-coronavirus-response-enacted-so-far-will-provide-2-8-trillion/#:~:text=And%20what%20a%20cost%20estimate,849%20billion%20in%20federal%20loans)) ([CBO Says Coronavirus Response Enacted So Far Will Provide $2.8 Trillion - The Eno Center for Transportation](https://enotrans.org/article/cbo-says-coronavirus-response-enacted-so-far-will-provide-2-8-trillion/#:~:text=So%20the%20official%20estimate%20is,96%20trillion)).*
## 2021 – American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARP)
1. **Source:** *CBO Letter to Congress* (re: Statutory PAYGO effects), Feb. 26, 2021 ([Congressional Record, Volume 167 Issue 37 (Friday, February 26, 2021)](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2021-02-26/html/CREC-2021-02-26-pt1-PgH773-2.htm#:~:text=)) (published in the *Congressional Record* – govinfo.gov).
2. **Budget Window:** FY2021–FY2031 ([Congressional Record, Volume 167 Issue 37 (Friday, February 26, 2021)](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2021-02-26/html/CREC-2021-02-26-pt1-PgH773-2.htm#:~:text=)).
3. **Total Deficit Impact:** **Increased** deficits by approximately **$1.9 trillion** over ten years ([Congressional Record, Volume 167 Issue 37 (Friday, February 26, 2021)](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2021-02-26/html/CREC-2021-02-26-pt1-PgH773-2.htm#:~:text=)) (CBO and JCT estimate of the ARP’s spending increases and tax changes).
## 2022 – Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA)
1. **Source:** *CBO Cost Estimate (Final Score)* – CBO Publication 58455, September 2022 ([What Is in the Inflation Reduction Act and How Much Will It Reduce the Deficit?](https://www.pgpf.org/article/what-is-in-the-inflation-reduction-act-and-how-much-will-it-reduce-the-deficit/#:~:text=Policymakers%20recently%20enacted%20the%20Inflation,from%20the%20Congressional%20Budget%20Office)) ([CBO.gov Summary](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58455)).
2. **Budget Window:** FY2022–FY2031 ([What Is in the Inflation Reduction Act and How Much Will It Reduce the Deficit?](https://www.pgpf.org/article/what-is-in-the-inflation-reduction-act-and-how-much-will-it-reduce-the-deficit/#:~:text=Policymakers%20recently%20enacted%20the%20Inflation,from%20the%20Congressional%20Budget%20Office)).
3. **Total Deficit Impact:** **Reduced** the deficit by about **$238 billion** over ten years ([What Is in the Inflation Reduction Act and How Much Will It Reduce the Deficit?](https://www.pgpf.org/article/what-is-in-the-inflation-reduction-act-and-how-much-will-it-reduce-the-deficit/#:~:text=Policymakers%20recently%20enacted%20the%20Inflation,from%20the%20Congressional%20Budget%20Office)) (net deficit reduction, as the law’s revenue increases and savings outweighed new spending).
Each source above is an official government publication (from CBO, JCT, or CRS) with the relevant deficit impact figures. If an official cost estimate for a bill was not available, we would note it; however, **estimates for all listed bills were found** in CBO/JCT analyses or CRS summaries of those official scores. All hyperlinks provided point to the original government reports or documents containing these estimates.
```
## Formatting
The research prompts above focus on accuracy, not formatting or tone. To create the final output, we reformat the output above to use structured JSON types, style guidelines, and a description of our audience and purpose.
Format [spending categories](/prompts.html#spending-categories):
```prompt name="format-spending-categories"
Please format the following spending category information, using clear, objective, non-partisan and politically neutral language.
Guidelines:
- Descriptions should be 1-2 sentences, using everyday language
- Break down complex terms and avoid jargon
- Focus on what the average person would want to know
- Keep explanations strictly neutral and non-partisan
- Each item in includes[] should be concise
- List examples for concreteness: you can use acronyms like DHS or FBI as needed.
Scope:
- Include more details/examples of programs in broader categories like "Non-defense discretionary" or "Other programs" that include many smaller programs.
- Include less details for more specific categories like "Social Security" or "Medicare".
Purpose:
- This content will be used in a web app designed to help the general public better understand the US budget deficit.
- Content will appear in tooltips on a spending category chart, so it should be clear, concise, and informative at a glance.
Output a TypeScript array following this structure:
type SpendingCategory = {
name: string; // The category name (e.g., "Defense")
shortName?: string; // A short name to use in tooltips (e.g., "Defense" or "Federal retirement")
description: string; // A clear, concise explanation in plain language
includes?: string[]; // Key programs and activities in bullet form
};
const SPENDING_CATEGORIES: SpendingCategory[] = [
{
name: "Defense",
shortName: "Defense",
description: "Funding for national defense and military operations.",
includes: [
"Military personnel and salaries",
"Weapons and equipment",
"Base operations"
]
}
...
]
Name should be one of these (preserve case):
- Defense
- Non-defense discretionary
- Social Security
- Medicare
- Medicaid
- Income security
- Federal civilian and military retirement
- Veterans programs
- Other programs
- Offsetting receipts
- Net interest
Please convert this source content:
[PASTE SPENDING CATEGORIES HERE]
```
```typescript for="format-spending-categories" model="openai/o3-mini-high" date="2025-02-18" link="https://chatgpt.com/share/67b4f185-b1dc-8012-9b0a-edc053b4013d"
type SpendingCategory = {
name: string; // The category name (e.g., "Defense")
shortName?: string; // A short name to use in tooltips (e.g., "Defense")
description: string; // A clear, concise explanation in plain language
includes?: string[]; // Key programs and activities in bullet form
};
const SPENDING_CATEGORIES: SpendingCategory[] = [
{
name: "Defense",
shortName: "Defense",
description:
"Funds national security and military operations. This spending covers personnel, equipment, and research to keep the country safe.",
includes: [
"Military personnel pay and benefits",
"Operations and maintenance",
"Weapons, equipment, and R&D",
"Nuclear defense activities (DOE)"
]
},
{
name: "Non-defense discretionary",
shortName: "Discretionary",
description:
"Funds a wide range of federal programs that are not related to defense. This spending supports education, health, infrastructure, housing, public safety, and international services.",
includes: [
"Education (grants, K–12, special education)",
"Health and science (NIH, public health, NASA)",
"Transportation and infrastructure (highways, transit, air traffic control)",
"Housing and community development (rental assistance, energy aid)",
"Public safety and justice (FBI, DEA, DHS, ICE, FEMA)",
"Environmental protection and natural resources (EPA, national parks)",
"International affairs (diplomacy, foreign aid)"
]
},
{
name: "Social Security",
shortName: "Social Security",
description:
"Provides monthly cash benefits for retirees, disabled individuals, and survivors, funded primarily by payroll taxes. Benefits are set by a formula to support millions of Americans.",
includes: [
"Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI)",
"Disability Insurance (DI)"
]
},
{
name: "Medicare",
shortName: "Medicare",
description:
"A health insurance program mainly for people 65 and older and for some younger individuals with disabilities. It covers hospital care, doctor visits, and prescription drugs.",
includes: [
"Hospital insurance (Part A)",
"Medical insurance (Part B)",
"Managed care option (Part C)",
"Prescription drug coverage (Part D)"
]
},
{
name: "Medicaid",
shortName: "Medicaid",
description:
"A joint federal and state program that provides health coverage for low-income individuals, including children, parents, and people with disabilities. It covers both basic and long-term care services.",
includes: [
"Low-income family coverage",
"Long-term care for seniors and disabled",
"Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP)"
]
},
{
name: "Income security",
shortName: "Income security",
description:
"Provides financial assistance to individuals and families facing economic challenges. This spending includes unemployment benefits, food aid, cash assistance, tax credits, and housing support.",
includes: [
"Unemployment Compensation",
"SNAP (food assistance)",
"Supplemental Security Income (SSI)",
"Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)",
"Tax credits (EITC, Child Tax Credit)",
"Housing assistance (Section 8, LIHEAP)"
]
},
{
name: "Federal civilian and military retirement",
shortName: "Federal retirement",
description:
"Pays pensions and retirement benefits for federal employees and military personnel based on their service and salary history. Benefits are provided automatically once eligibility is met.",
includes: [
"Civilian retirement systems (CSRS, FERS)",
"Military retirement pensions",
"Disability and survivor benefits"
]
},
{
name: "Veterans programs",
shortName: "Veterans programs",
description:
"Supports U.S. military veterans through a range of benefits including health care, education, and housing. These programs assist veterans and their families in transitioning to civilian life.",
includes: [
"Disability compensation and pensions",
"Veterans health care (VA hospitals, clinics)",
"Education and training (GI Bill)",
"Housing and other benefits"
]
},
{
name: "Other programs",
shortName: "Other programs",
description:
"Includes a variety of smaller or specialized spending programs not covered by other categories. This spending supports areas like agriculture, student loans, deposit insurance, and environmental projects.",
includes: [
"Agricultural subsidies and crop insurance",
"Federal student loan programs",
"Deposit insurance (FDIC)",
"Natural resources and environmental projects",
"Postal service support"
]
},
{
name: "Offsetting receipts",
shortName: "Offsetting receipts",
description:
"Represents funds collected by the government that help offset spending, such as fees and premiums. These receipts reduce the overall cost of government programs.",
includes: [
"Medicare premiums",
"Federal retirement contributions",
"Mineral royalties and rents",
"Spectrum auctions and user fees",
"Interest income and asset sales"
]
},
{
name: "Net interest",
shortName: "Net interest",
description:
"Covers the cost of paying interest on the federal debt after accounting for interest income. This mandatory expense reflects the government's borrowing costs.",
includes: [
"Interest payments on Treasury securities",
"Interest income offsets from loans and trust funds"
]
}
];
```
Format [tax policies](/prompts.html#tax-policies) and [cost projections](/prompts.html#cost-projections):
```prompt name="format-tax-policies"
Please format the following tax policy information using clear, objective, non-partisan and politically neutral language.
Guidelines:
- Keep descriptions factual and politically neutral
- Use clear, everyday language while maintaining accuracy
- Break down complex tax terminology where possible
- Focus on the key changes that affected individuals and businesses
- Include specific numbers and dates for context
- Preserve original source citations for deficit projections
Be concise:
- Summary should be 1 descriptive sentence, keep it short and to the point
- Provisions should be concise, in bullet point form (ideally fit on a single line), not complete sentences
Purpose:
- This content will be used in a web app to help the general public understand major US tax policy changes
- Content will be displayed in an interactive timeline, so it should be clear and informative at a glance
- Original source citations are important for credibility
Output a TypeScript array following this structure:
type TaxPolicyChange = {
year: number; // Year enacted
name: string; // Full official name of the legislation
commonName?: string; // More common name or acronym (if applicable)
president: string; // Last name of president who signed it
summary: string; // 1-2 sentence overview of major changes
majorProvisions: string[]; // Key changes in the law, in bullet form
projectedDeficitImpact: {
amount: number; // Magnitude in billions (always positive)
direction: 'increase' | 'decrease'; // Whether the amount is a deficit increase or decrease
windowStart: number; // Fiscal year start
windowEnd: number; // Fiscal year end
source: {
name: string; // Name of projecting organization (e.g. "CBO" or "JCT")
citation: string; // Original citation/document ID
url?: string; // URL to source if available
};
};
};
const TAX_POLICY_CHANGES: TaxPolicyChange[] = [
{
year: 2017,
name: "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017",
commonName: "TCJA",
president: "Trump",
summary: "Major reform cutting corporate taxes permanently and individual taxes temporarily."
majorProvisions: [
"Reduced corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%",
"Lowered individual tax rates across all brackets, with a top rate of 37%",
"Nearly doubled the standard deduction and eliminated personal exemptions",
"Limited state and local tax deductions to $10,000",
"Created 20% deduction for pass-through business income"
],
projectedDeficitImpact: {
amount: 1456, // $1.456 trillion
direction: 'increase', // Deficit increased
windowStart: 2018,
windowEnd: 2027,
source: {
name: "Joint Committee on Taxation",
citation: "JCX-67-17",
url: "https://www.jct.gov/publications/2017/jcx-67-17/"
}
}
}
];
Please convert this source content:
[PASTE TAX POLICY DESCRIPTIONS HERE]
[PASTE TAX POLICY COST ESTIMATES HERE]
```
```typescript for="format-tax-policies" model="openai/o3-mini-high" date="2025-02-18" link="https://chatgpt.com/share/67b507d8-561c-8012-8077-be046bd50419"
type TaxPolicyChange = {
year: number;
name: string;
commonName?: string;
president: string;
summary: string;
majorProvisions: string[];
projectedDeficitImpact: {
amount: number;
direction: 'increase' | 'decrease';
windowStart: number;
windowEnd: number;
source: {
name: string;
citation: string;
url?: string;
};
};
};
const TAX_POLICY_CHANGES: TaxPolicyChange[] = [
{
year: 1993,
name: "Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993",
commonName: "OBRA 1993",
president: "Clinton",
summary: "Law to reduce the federal deficit by raising taxes on high-income earners and corporations while adjusting payroll taxes and deductions.",
majorProvisions: [
"Raised top individual tax rate from 31% to 39.6%",
"Increased corporate tax rate from 34% to 35%",
"Removed the wage cap on the 2.9% Medicare payroll tax for all wages",
"Increased taxable portion of Social Security benefits for high-income retirees",
"Raised the fuel excise tax by 4.3¢ per gallon"
],
projectedDeficitImpact: {
amount: 433,
direction: 'decrease',
windowStart: 1994,
windowEnd: 1998,
source: {
name: "CRS",
citation: "RS22098",
url: "https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20061228_RS22098_53f07ec08d19f0cf5c422adf5a28d97c7352c5d5.pdf"
}
}
},
{
year: 1997,
name: "Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997",
commonName: "Taxpayer Relief Act",
president: "Clinton",
summary: "Law that lowered taxes for families and investors by reducing capital gains and estate taxes, introducing the child tax credit, and encouraging education and retirement savings.",
majorProvisions: [
"Introduced a child tax credit of up to $500 per child",
"Lowered the top capital gains tax rate to 20% (10% for some lower brackets)",
"Created a home sale exclusion of $250,000 (single) or $500,000 (joint)",
"Raised estate tax exemptions and gradually lowered estate tax rates",
"Established new education tax credits and created Roth IRAs"
],
projectedDeficitImpact: {
amount: 118,
direction: 'decrease',
windowStart: 1998,
windowEnd: 2002,
source: {
name: "CRS",
citation: "R40480",
url: "https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=P.L.%20105,revenue%20reductions"
}
}
},
{
year: 2001,
name: "Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001",
commonName: "2001 Bush Tax Cuts",
president: "Bush",
summary: "Comprehensive tax cuts that lowered individual rates, increased family credits, and phased out the estate tax, with cuts set to expire after 2010.",
majorProvisions: [
"Reduced income tax rates across several brackets and introduced a new 10% bracket",
"Increased the child tax credit from $500 to $1,000",
"Raised the estate tax exemption from $675,000 to $3.5 million over time",
"Temporarily repealed the estate tax for 2010",
"Raised contribution limits for retirement accounts and incentivized college savings"
],
projectedDeficitImpact: {
amount: 1349,
direction: 'increase',
windowStart: 2001,
windowEnd: 2011,
source: {
name: "CRS",
citation: "R40480",
url: "https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=This%2011,the%20Senate%E2%80%99s%20%E2%80%98%E2%80%98Byrd%20rule%E2%80%99%E2%80%99%20against"
}
}
},
{
year: 2003,
name: "Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003",
commonName: "2003 Bush Tax Cuts",
president: "Bush",
summary: "Accelerated earlier tax cuts by making them effective immediately and reducing taxes on dividends and capital gains to stimulate economic growth.",
majorProvisions: [
"Made scheduled tax cuts effective immediately",
"Reduced the top individual tax rate to 35%",
"Lowered taxes on qualified dividends and capital gains to 15% (5% for lower-income taxpayers)",
"Increased the child tax credit to $1,000",
"Boosted bonus depreciation from 30% to 50% and raised Section 179 expensing limits"
],
projectedDeficitImpact: {
amount: 349.667,
direction: 'increase',
windowStart: 2003,
windowEnd: 2013,
source: {
name: "CRS/JCT",
citation: "R40480 / JCX-55-03",
url: "https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=16,bracket"
}
}
},
{
year: 2009,
name: "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009",
commonName: "ARRA",
president: "Obama",
summary: "Stimulus law that provided temporary tax cuts and credits to boost spending and business investment during the Great Recession.",
majorProvisions: [
"Offered refundable 'Making Work Pay' credits up to $400 per individual",
"Delivered one-time payments to Social Security recipients and retirees",
"Expanded the Earned Income Tax Credit and made the Child Tax Credit more refundable",
"Replaced education credits with the American Opportunity Tax Credit",
"Raised the AMT exemption for 2009"
],
projectedDeficitImpact: {
amount: 787,
direction: 'increase',
windowStart: 2009,
windowEnd: 2019,
source: {
name: "CBO",
citation: "HR1 Conference Agreement",
url: "https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40537"
}
}
},
{
year: 2010,
name: "Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act",
commonName: "Affordable Care Act",
president: "Obama",
summary: "Landmark health reform law that expanded insurance coverage and implemented new taxes and credits to fund its provisions.",
majorProvisions: [
"Added a 0.9% Medicare tax on wages for high earners",
"Imposed a 3.8% net investment income tax on high-income individuals",
"Created refundable premium tax credits to lower insurance costs",
"Introduced an individual mandate with a tax penalty for non-compliance",
"Levied excise taxes on medical devices and health insurers"
],
projectedDeficitImpact: {
amount: 143,
direction: 'decrease',
windowStart: 2010,
windowEnd: 2019,
source: {
name: "CBO/JCT",
citation: "R40480",
url: "https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40480/18#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20Congressional%20Budget,FY2019"
}
}
},
{
year: 2012,
name: "American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012",
commonName: "ATRA (fiscal cliff deal)",
president: "Obama",
summary: "Law that averted a fiscal cliff by permanently extending most Bush tax cuts while raising rates on top earners and modifying estate and AMT rules.",
majorProvisions: [
"Made Bush-era individual tax cuts permanent for most taxpayers",
"Raised the top income tax rate to 39.6% for incomes above $400,000 (single) or $450,000 (joint)",
"Increased capital gains and dividend rates to 20% for high-income earners",
"Set a permanent $5 million estate tax exemption with a top rate of 40%",
"Permanently indexed the Alternative Minimum Tax for inflation"
],
projectedDeficitImpact: {
amount: 3930,
direction: 'increase',
windowStart: 2013,
windowEnd: 2022,
source: {
name: "CRS",
citation: "R42884",
url: "https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R42884#:~:text=projected%20to%20rise%20relative%20to,FY2022%20period"
}
}
},
{
year: 2017,
name: "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017",
commonName: "TCJA",
president: "Trump",
summary: "Major reform that permanently cut corporate taxes and temporarily lowered individual rates while revising deductions and international tax rules.",
majorProvisions: [
"Reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%",
"Lowered individual tax rates with a top rate of 37% (temporary)",
"Nearly doubled the standard deduction and eliminated personal exemptions",
"Capped state and local tax deductions at $10,000",
"Created a 20% deduction for pass-through business income"
],
projectedDeficitImpact: {
amount: 1456,
direction: 'increase',
windowStart: 2018,
windowEnd: 2027,
source: {
name: "JCT",
citation: "JCX-67-17",
url: "https://www.jct.gov/publications/2017/jcx-67-17/"
}
}
},
{
year: 2020,
name: "Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act",
commonName: "CARES Act",
president: "Trump",
summary: "Pandemic response law that provided direct payments and tax relief to individuals and businesses to mitigate COVID-19's economic impact.",
majorProvisions: [
"Issued stimulus checks of $1,200 per adult plus $500 per child",
"Offered a refundable payroll tax credit of 50% on wages up to $10,000 per employee",
"Allowed businesses to carry back net operating losses for up to 5 years",
"Permitted deferral of the 6.2% Social Security payroll tax",
"Expanded bonus depreciation and suspended tax on some unemployment benefits"
],
projectedDeficitImpact: {
amount: 1721,
direction: 'increase',
windowStart: 2020,
windowEnd: 2030,
source: {
name: "CBO",
citation: "Preliminary Cost Estimate for H.R. 748",
url: "https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-04/hr748.pdf"
}
}
},
{
year: 2021,
name: "American Rescue Plan Act of 2021",
commonName: "American Rescue Plan",
president: "Biden",
summary: "COVID-19 relief law that issued stimulus payments and expanded tax benefits to support families and low-income workers.",
majorProvisions: [
"Provided $1,400 stimulus payments per eligible person",
"Expanded the child tax credit to $3,000 per child (or $3,600 for young children) with monthly payments",
"Nearly tripled the Earned Income Tax Credit for workers without children",
"Increased the child and dependent care credit to cover 50% of expenses",
"Extended enhanced ACA premium tax credits through 2022"
],
projectedDeficitImpact: {
amount: 1900,
direction: 'increase',
windowStart: 2021,
windowEnd: 2031,
source: {
name: "CBO",
citation: "Letter to Congress",
url: "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2021-02-26/html/CREC-2021-02-26-pt1-PgH773-2.htm"
}
}
},
{
year: 2022,
name: "Inflation Reduction Act of 2022",
commonName: "Inflation Reduction Act",
president: "Biden",
summary: "Law aimed at reducing inflation by raising taxes on large corporations and extending incentives for health and clean energy.",
majorProvisions: [
"Imposed a 15% minimum tax on large corporations with over $1 billion in income",
"Created a 1% excise tax on stock buybacks",
"Extended enhanced ACA premium tax credits through 2025",
"Expanded tax credits for renewable energy, electric vehicles, and green technology",
"Extended limitations on excess business loss deductions"
],
projectedDeficitImpact: {
amount: 238,
direction: 'decrease',
windowStart: 2022,
windowEnd: 2031,
source: {
name: "CBO via CRFB",
citation: "Publication 58455",
url: "https://www.crfb.org/blogs/cbo-scores-ira-238-billion-deficit-reduction"
}
}
}
];
```